- Using historical Bitcoin price data, it is possible to model different buying behaviors.
- Buying during hype periods has been a losing strategy when combined with ‘weak hands’.
- Simply holding or buying the dip have been winning strategies for Bitcoin historically.
After the disastrous start to the year for Bitcoin (COIN, OTCQX:GBTC), many investors have been left wondering how to proceed. One on hand, investors who witnessed the end of year rallies in 2017 know how quickly the market can turn around and do not want to be left behind if Bitcoin surges. On the other hand, the sharp corrections often following bull runs have left an indelible impression on investors and many now patiently anticipate these corrections before buying in. In this article, we’ll show an analysis of historical data to attempt to shed light on how best to invest in Bitcoin.
FOMO, or the Fear of Missing Out, has been exemplified by the rush of investors buying in during the latest Bitcoin bull run in late 2017. Many investors not only rushed to buy in, but bought on margin or using credit, which can never be recommended for such a volatile asset. The idea behind FOMO stems from a very primitive herd mentality instinct. If one observes Bitcoin rising by $1,000 every few minutes, as seen during the height of the madness, one naturally extrapolates the trend and forgets the downside.
To simulate FOMO behavior, we’ll use historical intraday Bitcoin prices as well as Google trends data, both pulled from the Cryptory package in Python. This data begins in April 2013, which is a good starting point for us, as Bitcoin had climbed to over $100 and was beginning to become more widely known. In this simulation, we’ll follow FOMO Fred, who exhibits the following behavior meant to model an investor who buys in during periods of hype and then panic sells during subsequent dips